Ontario Electricity Rates Are Rising This Fall: What It Means for EV Home Charging

What's driving the increase

The Ontario Energy Board's wholesale electricity market price forecast projects average wholesale prices climbing from roughly $55/MWh in late 2025 to about $94/MWh by late 2026 — a jump of around 71%. Prices actually dipped through the summer as two refurbished nuclear units returned to service, but the forecast has them climbing steadily from here, peaking between November 2026 and January 2027.

Three things are pushing the increase. The four remaining Pickering nuclear units and a Bruce B unit are scheduled to begin refurbishment at the end of September 2026, taking a large block of low-cost baseload generation offline for an extended period. At the same time, the carbon price applied to gas-fired generation under Ontario's Emissions Performance Standards is set to keep rising toward $125/tonne in 2027. And separately, Ontario Power Generation has applied to the OEB for a substantially higher payment rate for its nuclear output — its 2026 filing sought an increase of roughly 72.6%, to $123.76/MWh — to cover the rising cost of the refurbishment program itself, as reported by The Globe and Mail.

What happens to your bill

None of this changes your rate today. The OEB sets residential Regulated Price Plan (RPP) rates twice a year — November 1 and May 1 — using forecasts like this one as the basis, so the practical effect shows up on the November 1, 2026 rate reset. The structure of Time-of-Use, Tiered, and Ultra-Low Overnight plans isn't changing; what's likely to move is the base level each tier is priced from. Exact new cents-per-kWh figures aren't published until the OEB's November announcement, so treat any specific number you see before then as a forecast, not a bill.

Why this makes off-peak charging more valuable, not less

Wholesale prices rising doesn't erase the gap between peak and off-peak — if anything, a tighter supply picture this winter tends to widen it, since evening demand becomes more expensive to serve relative to overnight demand. We ran the numbers on that gap in our off-peak charging breakdown: even at current rates, overnight charging on Ultra-Low Overnight pricing can cost roughly a third of a Time-of-Use off-peak charge, and a fraction of an on-peak one. A broader rate increase raises the dollar value of avoiding peak hours, which is exactly what a charger with app-based scheduling is built to do automatically.

What Ontario EV owners should do now

There's no action needed before November — but it's a good moment to confirm your charger is actually scheduled to charge overnight rather than the moment you plug in after work, and to check which of the three residential rate plans fits your household's broader usage pattern, not just your EV. If your evening routine (cooking, heating, general appliance use) is hard to shift out of the 4–9 p.m. window, a narrower-spread plan like standard TOU may still beat ULO even as base rates rise. Our Incentive Finder also tracks provincial charger rebates separately from electricity pricing, in case a rebate is still available in your area.

Outside Ontario

This particular rate cycle is Ontario-specific — it's tied to the province's nuclear refurbishment schedule and OEB rate-setting process. Other provinces set electricity prices through different mechanisms and timelines, so a similar increase isn't automatically coming to BC, Quebec, or Alberta on the same schedule. If you're outside Ontario, your utility's own rate announcements are the place to check, not this forecast.

The takeaway

A near-term rate increase in Ontario is a real, well-documented development — not a reason to delay a home charger purchase or assume EV charging is becoming uneconomical. The core math still favours home charging over public fast charging by a wide margin, and a 48A charger like Voltix that schedules charging automatically from its app is precisely the tool that keeps a rate increase from reaching your bill in full. For help choosing the right unit, see our guide to the best Level 2 charger for Canadian homes.